Mr Nour is one of the few opposition candidates who would meet the criteria for challenging Mr Mubarak in September, although nobody credits him with national support. The fact that Condoleezza Rice called on the Egyptian government to release him from jail, after his arrest in January for allegedly forging signatures in support of his campaign, is likely to lose him votes, if anything.If Egyptian officials are to be believed, the Americans have told the government that they don't mind who wins the elections - the presidential poll is followed in November by parliamentary elections - as long as they are democratic. Until now, discussion of reform has been confined to the living rooms of Egypt's "chattering classes".Ayman Nour, the leader of El Ghad (Tomorrow), a liberal party, says he can sense that "Egyptians are very thirsty for change" after 24 years of political stagnation. "We are not pulling the Egyptians after us, we are late," he says, comfortably ensconced in his eighth-floor penthouse flat in Cairo again after spending 43 days in jail. And government officials point out that in the next presidential elections in six years, nobody can predict how many candidates will secure the necessary backing to run.In the election in September, predicted one senior official, Egyptians "will not ask the President to leave his seat because they love him Other parties are very weak. For this reason I think that our President has no challenge." Grassroots support for opening up the political system does seem to exist, as the debate gathers steam in the press.

All in full view of Egyptian state television, of course.Gamal Mubarak recognises that sons succeeding their fathers in the Middle East is an "issue" because of the general unease about inherited power. He also jokes that it happens in democracies, such as the two Bush presidencies in the US. But he sticks to the line that at this point, he does not even know whether his father has decided to run for another term. "But he's going to have to be a real politician if he wants to emerge," said a Western diplomat.All the signs of political grooming are there: Gamal Mubarak, who worked in London after being educated at the American University in Cairo, has been spearheading the ruling party's reform programme since he returned. His policy post has taken him across the country to "town hall" meetings as he explains the government's plans for change. What is more, with the change in the Egyptian constitution which will allow more than one candidate to run in presidential elections, "this notion should be put to bed".But the notion has not been put to bed because of the restrictions being placed on parties in the election, which will mean that only candidates put up by the NDP or by recognised parties can stand - thus excluding the popular but banned Islamic fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood from fielding a candidate. Egyptian and foreign analysts say that President Mubarak's game plan seems to be that the reform of the electoral law will provide a springboard for his son to run for president in 2011.They add that it would not necessarily be a bad thing: Mubarak Jnr is described as "serious" about change, and is credited with bringing into government a "dream team" of 40-somethings who have instituted economic reforms that are rolling back the legacy of the state-controlled economy dating from the Nasser era.

"I have made it clear that I am not putting myself forward," he said.He stressed that when he entered politics in 2000 following his return to Cairo from London, the President had made it clear that "the scenarios people are trying to present in our own political structure have nothing to do with reality". Egypt, which has a feisty, free press, is extremely sensitive to any suggestion of kow-towing to America, despite the $2bn (£1.1bn) received from the US each year.During a three-hour conversation with journalists from the UK at the military's Sporting Club in Heliopolis, Gamal Mubarak dismissed as "rubbish" any suggestion that Mr Mubarak's announcement of a referendum on constitutional reform stemmed from a request from George Bush. Such reports, he said, were having a negative impact on domestic opinion, which is increasingly anti-American as a result of the Iraq war.As he answered questions on all aspects of the Egyptian reforms, he only showed exasperation when he was asked about his political intentions. The Mubaraks' elder son, Alaa, is a businessman and has made it clear that he has no desire to enter politics.The glamorous Mrs Mubarak, whose mother was a Welsh nurse, is no stranger to public life as head of the Suzanne Mubarak International Movement for Women and Peace, which provides ample photo opportunities for the Egyptian First Lady. A dinner that she hosted for women on Monday night in Cairo lured guests from an official UN function, a UN seminar on the Middle East, much to the embarrassment of the foreign ministry. She was the one who escorted Laura Bush around Cairo and Alexandria during a visit earlier this month in which Mrs Bush praised Hosni Mubarak's "bold and wise first step" towards democracy.The fallout from that trip is still going on: the Education Minister, Kamelia Hegazi, was forced to make a statement in parliament on Monday to deny the government had bussed in students to an Alexandria school to impress Mrs Bush.